Recently in Polls and Surveys Category

From WRAL.com:

Raleigh, N.C. -- State Sen. Fred Smith and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory are in a virtual tie for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, according to a WRAL News poll released Wednesday.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. surveyed 400 likely Republican voters on Monday and Tuesday and found Smith is supported by 32 percent of voters while 31 percent favor McCrory. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Smith leads among men and voters 50 and older, while McCrory was stronger among women and younger voters, according to the poll.

The 3rd District Republican Convention was held this weekend and the results of the straw poll taken at the convention were as follows:

For Governor of North Carolina:

Fred Smith - 95
Pat McCory - 14
Bill Graham -1
Bob Orr - 1

Fred won the Civitas straw poll held following the gubernatorial debate this weekend as part of the annual Civitas Leadership Conference.

Smith 49%
McCrory 34%
Orr 9%
Graham 8%

 

A recent survey of 600 North Carolinians indicates a close race between Fred Smith and Pat McCrory for the GOP gubernatorial nomination:

MEMORANDUM

To: Jonathan Hill

From: Whit Ayres

Date: April 14, 2008

Subject: Survey Shows Close Race for N.C. Gubernatorial Nomination

 

 

Our recent survey of 600 North Carolinians who have voted in past Republican primaries shows a close race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination between Fred Smith and Pat McCrory.  This survey was conducted April 7, 8, and 10, 2008.  Highlights of the survey include:

1.     Both leading candidates have virtually identical name recognition and personal ratings.  Fred Smith's name is recognized by 69 percent of likely Republican primary voters, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 45 to 6 percent.  Pat McCrory's name is recognized by 70 percent of likely Republican primary voters, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 48 to 6 percent.  Bill Graham and Bob Orr trail significantly in both name recognition and ratings.  Graham's name is recognized by 58 percent, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 28 to 6 percent.  Orr's name is recognized by 55 percent, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 22 to 5 percent.

2.     Comparable percentages of Republican primary voters have seen, read, or heard something lately about both Smith and McCrory.   Fifty-two percent of primary voters have seen, read, or heard something lately about Fred Smith, with 28 percent more likely to vote for him based on that information, and only 6 percent less likely.  Fifty-four percent of primary voters have seen, read, or heard something lately about Pat McCrory, with 26 percent more likely to vote for him based on that information, and 3 percent less likely.

3.     The gubernatorial ballot is effectively a two-man race, with both leading candidates in the 30s, and with one-quarter of the electorate still undecided.  On the ballot test, McCrory has 36 percent, Smith 30 percent, Graham 6 percent, Orr 5 percent, with 23 percent undecided.  Smith leads McCrory in the Asheville media market by 42 to 10 percent, in the Raleigh media market by 38 to 26 percent, and in the eastern media markets by 56 to 11 percent.  Smith also leads McCrory among rural voters, small town voters, and religious conservatives.

With three weeks to go, the Republican gubernatorial race is wide open.  Raising money is critical for the stretch run.  Whoever runs the best campaign between now and May 6 is likely to be the winner of the four-way contest. 

Methodology

Ayres, McHenry & Associates surveyed 600 registered voters throughout North Carolina on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday evenings, April 7, 8, and 10, 2008.  Respondents were selected randomly from a list of past Republican primary participants, and all voted in at least one statewide Republican primary in 2000, 2002, 2004, or 2006.  Calling quotas were established by county and gender based on past Republican primary turnout.  The margin of error for the statewide sample is ±4.0 percent.

Here are the results of a Macon County GOP straw poll held this weekend, as posted on the Thunderpig blog:

1. Fred Smith -- 34
   
2. Bob Orr -- 5
   
3. Bill Graham --  3
   
4. Pat McCrory -- 1
   

Fred won another straw poll over the weekend -- at the Brunswick County GOP Convention.  Here are the specifics from the Brunswick County Republican Party:

Brunswick County GOP holds convention, picks Smith for Governor in straw poll.

The Brunswick County Republicans held their 2008 annual convention Saturday at their headquarters.  With over 100 delegates, candidates, and other Republicans present, they heard NC Representative Bill Daughtridge give the keynote speech.  Daughtridge, from Rocky Mount, is the Republican candidate for Treasurer of North Carolina.  Since he is unopposed in the May 6th primary, he will compete in November's election to fill the Treasurer's position being vacated by Democrat Richard Moore.

As the convention was being called to order by county chairman Frank Iler, a straw poll for Governor was held among Brunswick County Republicans present.  Of the four candidates on the Republican ballot for the May primary 58 or 89% of those voting preferred Fred Smith, NC Senator from Johnston County.  Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory received 3 votes (5%),  Judge Robert Orr got 3 votes (5%), and Bill Graham of Salisbury got 1 vote (1%).  Senator Smith, who has close ties to Brunswick County, has visited often, and actually was present to speak to the convention later, after the poll results had been tallied, but not announced. 

Over 15 candidates were present to speak for candidacies for Governor, Supreme Court,Court of Appeals, County Commission, School Board, Register of Deeds, etc.  Two legislative candidates who are unopposed in the primary, NC Representative Bonner Stiller of Brunswick County is running for another term, and NC Senate candidate Bettie Fennell of Pender County is challenging the incumbent, R.C. Soles.   

Candidate for Congress, Will Breazeale of White Lake, who has no primary opposition, waspeaking to the convention Saturday about his campaign against incumbent Mike McIntyre. An Army National Guard Major, Will has been activated for three tours of duty in Iraq, and spoke about his support for the fair tax, and a desire to replace McIntyre, who votes with Nancy Pelosi.

U.S. Senator Elizabeth, who just visited Brunswck County two weeks ago, had her county coordinator, School Board Chair Shirley Babson, speaking on her behalf.  Candidate for Lt. Governor Robert Pittenger had a spokesman, Marty Cooke of Shallotte and Ocean Isle Beach speaking for him.

All the candidates got enthusiastic reactions from the crowd.  The convention elected 60 delegates from Brunswick County to the NC GOP state convention in Greensboro, June 6 - 8, as well as to the 7th District convention here at the county headquarters on April 5th.

There is a lot of good news to report from the weekend's straw polls from across the state.  Here are the results:

Carteret County GOP Convention straw poll:

Smith  --  61 votes (73%)
McCrory  --  16 votes (19%)
Graham  --  5 votes (6%)
Orr  --   2 votes (2%)

Wayne County GOP Convention straw poll:

Fred Smith  --  29 votes
Bob Orr  --  2 votes
Bill Graham  --  1 vote
Pat McCrory  --  1 vote

Guilford County Lincoln Day Dinner:


Graham County Lincoln Day Dinner: 

Fred Smith -- 19  (82.6%)
Bill Graham  --  3 (13%)
Bob Orr  --  1  (4.4%)
Pat McCrory  --  0 (0%)

From The Shelby Star:

Shelby, NC - Tenth District Congressman Patrick McHenry and State Senator Fred Smith were the big winners of the Cleveland County Republican Party's straw poll held at the Party's annual convention Monday night...

In the straw poll for Governor, State Senator Fred Smith of Johnston County was the clear favorite as he captured 61% of the vote. He was trailed distantly by Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory with 26%, Former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr with 9 % and Salisbury Attorney Bill Graham with 4%. Both McCrory and Graham attended and spoke at the convention. Senator Smith could not attend but his Western Field Representative; Former Henderson County Sheriff George Erwin spoke on his behalf.

 "We have four fine candidates for governor all of which recognize the importance of Cleveland County and have been here on numerous occasions. I want to thank Mayor McCrory, and Mr. Graham for taking the time to attend our convention as well as Sheriff Erwin for coming on behalf of Senator Smith," King commented.

From the Hendersonville Times-News today:

Gubernatorial candidate Fred Smith and 11th Congressional District candidate Carl Mumpower won informal straw polls at the Henderson County Republican Men's Club today.

Mumpower, an Asheville City Council member, received 24 votes. Former Henderson County Republican Party Chairman Spence Campbell received 14 votes and Highlands Attorney John Armor won three votes. The candidates are competing to face Rep. Heath Shuler, D-Waynesville, in November.

Smith, a state senator from Clayton, received 28 votes in the race for the Republican nomination for governor. Former Supreme Court justice and Bob Orr, who grew up in Hendersonville, received 12 votes, attorney Bill Graham received 1 vote and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory received none.

Men's Club President Philip Stanley said the club would conduct another poll in April to see if the votes had changed.